The extended conflict in Iran and growing worries about inflation are causing instability in worldwide bond markets. The U.S. consumer price inflation rate has hit its highest point in three years, while increased military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran have caused the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield to surpass the key threshold of 5% per annum. In South Korea's bond market, government bond rates have also approached their annual peak, as experts observe that investors are anticipating higher bond yields (which mean falling prices).
◇ U.S. Inflation Increases at Highest Rate in Three Years
As reported by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 4.2% in May when compared to the same period in the prior year. This represented a rise from April's 3.8% growth and was the largest increase seen since 2023. On a monthly basis, prices went up by 0.5%, meeting analysts' predictions. Nevertheless, the core CPI, a key indicator watched by the Federal Reserve in shaping interest rate policies, grew just 0.2% over the past month, below the expected 0.3%. Certain specialists remarked, "The most severe outcome has been prevented."
Although the core CPI saw a smaller increase than expected, which briefly caused U.S. bond yields to fall, rising tensions in the Middle East changed this direction. On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: "We will attack Iran more severely," leading Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to adopt an equivalent position, sparking renewed worries about possible warfare. As reported by Investing.com on the 11th, the U.S. 3-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased by 0.036 percent and 0.041 percent compared to the prior day, hitting annual rates of 4.213% and 4.569%. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.044%, crossing above the significant 5% level. An individual from the finance sector remarked, "Ongoing anxieties over inflation, along with potential disruptions in oil supplies due to conflicts involving Iran, are causing pressure on what were once considered secure investments like U.S. Treasuries. Previously, when people avoided risks, they invested in U.S. bonds, thus reducing their yields. However, now factors such as energy prices and U.S. budget shortfalls are making longer-term bonds 'assets for sale.'"
◇South Korean Government Bond Yields Approaching Yearly Peaks
Rising inflation worries and tensions in the Middle East are causing instability in South Korea's bond market. Bond yields in Seoul have reached near-record highs this year, as global interest rate increases continue to push them higher. As reported by the Korea Financial Investment Association, on the 10th, the 3-year government bond yield was recorded at an annual rate of 3.881%, while the 10-year yield came in at 4.273%. These figures are close to their yearly maximums of 3.94% and 4.348%, respectively. Meanwhile, the volume of stock loan deals betting against rising bond prices has hit a new all-time peak. On January 2nd, the total value stood at 182.538 trillion Korean won, but by the 10th, it had climbed to 234.6373 trillion—showing growth of more than 52 trillion Korean won within just six months.
Another element contributing to rising bond yields is the Bank of Korea's decision to raise interest rates. Governor Shin Hyun-song has highlighted the importance of increasing rates, as financial markets anticipate the likelihood of two hikes occurring within the current year. Kim Jin-hee, an analyst from Shinhan Securities, stated, "Taking into account the continued positive surprises in exports and the initial phase of inflationary pressures, tight monetary policy is expected to remain in place through at least the third quarter. Should discussions between the United States and Iran advance during the latter part of the second quarter or the beginning of the third, stable oil prices might briefly reduce market rates; however, a long-term decline seems improbable."
