North Korea is becoming increasingly strategically significant for China to balance against the United States, yet experts suggest that Pyongyang might avoid escalating military connections with Beijing.
During his session with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un On Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that both parties should "increase cooperation in diplomatic, law enforcement, and military areas," as reported by the state-run news agency Xinhua.
Although both parties made commitments to enhance strategic communication, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was absent from their declarations during the meeting, marking a significant difference compared to Xi's earlier visit in 2019.
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Additionally, this was different from their earlier summits, as Xi and Kim were joined by their defense ministers, Dong Jun And Kim Yong-sam. This marks the first time since 1992 that a Chinese defense minister has traveled to North Korea with the Chinese president.
It is also the first recorded instance of a high-ranking Chinese defense official traveling to the nation since Miao Hua The former director of the Political Work Department of the Chinese Central Military Commission made a visit in 2019.
Although a Chinese military team is said to have visited North Korea for the first time in six years during October last year, the rank of the delegation remains undisclosed. The emphasis placed on military issues this week marked a new focus beyond the usual areas of economic and diplomatic concerns.
Nevertheless, North Korean state media omitted Xi's comments regarding enhancing military cooperation between the two nations, even though they provided comprehensive reporting on the Chinese leader's trip.
Professor Kang Jun-young from the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul stated that Xi's comments indicated to Washington that Beijing has "securely obtained a military partner," while simultaneously conveying "a warning against over-closeness militarily" between Pyongyang and Moscow.
Beijing formally opposes enforceable military partnerships, yet it has entered into agreements with 1961 Agreement of Amity, Collaboration, and Reciprocal Aid involving North Korea, which represents China's sole ongoing defense pact with another nation.
According to Kang, North Korean media did not reference Xi's remarks as openly recognizing stronger military connections with China might impose a "significant load" on Pyongyang, particularly since it had been advancing considerably in military cooperation with Russia.
Sydney Seiler, serving as the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the U.S. National Intelligence Council between 2020 and 2023, mentioned that Beijing aimed to convey "subtle signals" indicating that Pyongyang should be "wise enough" to avoid undermining Sino-North Korean ties.
Although Chinese reports indicated that military exchanges might be included in broader cooperative efforts between the two nations, he stated that this did not mean "bilateral, let alone trilateral, military drills in the near term."
"Currently, Russian-North Korean ties seem not to have suffered major damage; Russia remains the more affordable and less demanding ally for North Korea," noted Seiler, a senior advisor for the Korea Chair at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Kim is expected to seek out low-risk, restricted chances to enhance collaboration with China, yet in a more restrained and careful approach.
It is believed that Pyongyang has obtained Russian technical support in enhancing its traditional arms capabilities in return for dispatching soldiers and equipment to assist Moscow’s conflict in Ukraine. In addition, the two nations concluded a bilateral defense agreement in June 2024, stipulating that an armed assault against one nation obliges the other to offer military backing, representing the highest level of security cooperation between North Korea and Russia.
Cho Han-bum A senior research fellow from the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul stated that although increased military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow has prompted China to seek ways to restore and enhance its influence over North Korea, Pyongyang may continue to adopt a careful stance.
"Since North Korea has consistently pursued balanced diplomacy, maintaining a delicate position between China and Russia, it remains cautious about military collaboration with China that might exceed certain boundaries," Cho stated.
The chance for greater military interactions between China and North Korea arises amid Pyongyang's ongoing development of its nuclear and traditional weaponry programs.
The day prior to the release of news regarding Xi's visit, North Korean official media stated that Kim had recently visited a newly launched facility for producing nuclear materials and promised to significantly enhance his nation's nuclear capabilities, while consistently increasing its scale over time.
On Sunday – the day prior to Xi's visit – Kim's sibling Kim Yo-jong remarked that North Korea's position as a nation possessing nuclear capabilities was an "absolute, undefined limit," and that "adversarial powers" like the U.S. "should abandon their illusions about de-nuclearization."
Although China had earlier backed a denuclearized Korean Peninsula, its latest moves indicate a shift away from this stance.
In an opinion piece released by North Korea's official newspaper Rodong Sinmun prior to his visit, Xi emphasized standing against "hegemonism and power struggles, as well as every attempt and plan aimed at reviving militarism and threatening regional security and peace," though denuclearization was not referenced.
It stood in opposition to Xi's editorial in the same outlet prior to his previous visit seven years earlier, which emphasized fostering peace and discussion regarding the Korean Peninsula.
The Chinese government promotes the total elimination of nuclear weapons and peace on the Korean Peninsula via step-by-step, multi-party discussions. Nonetheless, China's approach seemed to shift from its initial position in November after excluding endorsement of a nuke-free Korea in its most recent white paper entitled "China's Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation in the New Era."
Lim Eul-chul, affiliated with the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, stated that variations in media reporting about the summit highlighted North Korea's concern over its structure potentially being overshadowed by China's economic framework or international production networks.
China adopted a position of "de facto acceptance" regarding North Korea's status as a nuclear state by maintaining "deliberate quietness," according to Lim, who mentioned that Xi strongly endorsed the "Korean-style socialist achievement" of declaring itself a nuclear power in its constitution.
It seems this is an effort to establish a defense partnership between North Korea and China aimed at countering South Korea, the United States, and Japan via military collaboration in return for tolerating nuclear capabilities.
Patrick Cronin, who serves as the Asia-Pacific security director at the Washington-based research organization Hudson Institute, stated that Xi's general appeals for greater commercial and defense cooperation constituted a "strategic message" directed towards both Moscow and Washington.
He stated that Beijing is emphasizing the idea that China, rather than Russia, continues to be North Korea's essential ally.
Meanwhile, this serves as a reminder to Washington that China has significant influence over Pyongyang and thus deserves more respect in upcoming diplomatic initiatives aimed at ensuring peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Kang pointed out that Xi's trip to North Korea highlighted Pyongyang's growing significance for China, as evidenced by the Chinese leader's frequent statements underscoring strategic collaboration and dialogue.
In response to the United States reinforcing alliances with South Korea and Japan, China is drawing North Korea, which has historically been within its sphere of influence... For this purpose, it must somewhat recognize North Korea's position.
Nevertheless, based on historical evidence, Kang stated that North Korea would avoid being overly swayed by any one country, be it China or Russia.
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The article was first published on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), a top-tier news outlet covering stories about China and Asia.
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